NFC South: Saints hoping win serves as a springboard
Football Betting Lines
11/18/2008 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- Things haven't quite gone as planned for the New Orleans Saints for much of the 2008 season, with injuries, inconsistency and even a
little in-fighting all contributing to the unwanted 4-5 record the team
brought into this past Sunday's meeting with Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium.
For at least one day, though, the club many insiders had tabbed as one to beat
in the NFC South heading into this campaign lived up to its preseason billing.
Granted that the one-win Chiefs weren't the most challenging of tests, but
Sunday's 30-20 road victory did provide a jolt of encouragement for a second-
half resurgence for New Orleans. The Saints were efficient on offense, stingy
on defense at crucial points of the game, and for the most part steered clear
of the self-inflicted breakdowns which too often have plagued them over the
last 2 1/2 months.
New Orleans also finally broke into the win column on the road for the first
time this season. Discounting a 37-32 shootout triumph over San Diego in a
neutral-site affair in London last month, the Saints had lost all four of
their matchups in enemy venues prior to the Kansas City game.
The Saints will attempt to record another first when they host defending NFC
North champion Green Bay this Monday, the team's first game at the Superdome
since October 12. New Orleans has yet to post back-to-back wins this year and
hasn't done so since Weeks 14 and 15 of the 2007 season.
The game is also expected to mark the long-awaited comeback of Reggie Bush to
the Saints' lineup. The versatile running back and electrifying return man was
held out of the Kansas City game to further rest his surgically-repaired left
knee, but is expected to be ready to go when the Packers visit the Crescent
City.
Bush hasn't played since tearing the meniscus in his knee during a loss at
division-rival Carolina on October 19. The Heisman Trophy winner had scored
eight touchdowns, including three on punt returns, in seven games prior to
getting hurt.
Pierre Thomas did a pretty good Bush imitation against the Chiefs. The second-
year back posted season-bests of 88 rushing yards and 16 carries along with a
touchdown on the afternoon, while netting an additional 56 yards on four
receptions.
QUICK HITS: Wide receiver Lance Moore recorded career-highs of eight catches
and 102 receiving yards, 47 of which came on a touchdown connection with
quarterback Drew Brees in the third quarter, in Sunday's win...Reserve
defensive end Jeff Charleston had two of New Orleans' four sacks against the
Chiefs...Running back Deuce McAllister and defensive end Will Smith will have
their appeals of a potential four-game suspension for violating the NFL's
steroid policy heard by league commissioner Roger Goodell on Tuesday. The pair
tested positive for a banned diuretic in late October...Tight end Mark
Campbell left the game with a sprained MCL in his left knee, an injury that
could jeopardize the blocking specialist's season...The Saints went 3-1
against AFC West teams this year, but are just 2-4 against the NFC so far in
2008.
NEXT UP: New Orleans plays its first home game in six weeks when the Packers
invade the Superdome for a Monday night clash. Like the Saints, Green Bay has
split its first 10 games of the season, but that is currently good for a
three-way tie for first place in the suspect NFC North. The Packers will be
visiting New Orleans for the first time since 2002.
ATLANTA: The Falcons' season-long run of success at the Georgia Dome came to
an end over the weekend, as the Denver Broncos dealt Atlanta its first loss at
the Georgia Dome in 2008 with Sunday's 24-20 decision.
The Falcons also had their bid for a third consecutive victory foiled for the
second time this season, but the upstart team came very close in a tightly-
contested game that featured four lead changes.
After Denver regained a four-point advantage with a 10-play, 83-yard
touchdown drive that culminated with Jay Cutler's short scoring pass to tight
end Daniel Graham with 5:35 left to play, rookie quarterback Matt Ryan marched
the Falcons across midfield in the game's final minutes. Faced with a 3rd-
and-18 from the Broncos 45-yard-line, Ryan heaved a deep strike down the right
sideline for his favorite target, wide receiver Roddy White.
The speedy wideout got his hands on the would-be touchdown pass, but was
unable to haul in what would have been a tough catch. Ryan then misfired on
the ensuing play, giving Denver the ball on downs with under a minute to go.
Although White finished with 102 yards on five grabs, the fifth time the
former first-round pick has eclipsed the century mark this year, he spent most
of his time after the game lamenting the one reception he couldn't quite come
up with.
"I have to go out there and make those plays," he said. "I feel responsible
for the loss today. I had an opportunity and I didn't take advantage of it."
Ryan had an imperfect afternoon as well, in comparison to his previous
flawless performances at the Georgia Dome to begin his promising career. The
heady young signal-caller did put up 250 yards on 20-of-33 passing against the
Broncos, but was also intercepted for the first time in Atlanta's five home
games this season. The pick, which was snared by veteran Dre' Bly late in the
third quarter, led to a Denver field goal.
Entering Sunday's clash, Ryan had an NFL-best 125.2 passer rating at home and
had thrown for five touchdowns and no interceptions over the Falcons' four
prior tests as the host. Atlanta had won each of those games.
The Falcons, who still remain in the thick of the NFC playoff picture with a
6-4 record, have not won three in a row since October 16-November 6, 2005.
QUICK HITS: White now has eight straight games with at least five
receptions... Running back Michael Turner scored two touchdowns in Sunday's
loss, including a 25-yard scoring burst early in the fourth quarter that gave
the Falcons a short-lived 20-17 lead...Falcons cornerback Domonique Foxworth
spent his first three seasons with the Broncos before being traded to Atlanta
in early September. He compiled five solo tackles against his former club...
Defensive tackle Grady Jackson, who tested positive for the same illegal
substance as the Saints' McAllister and Smith, will have the appeal of his
case heard later this week...Ryan has just two touchdown passes and five
interceptions in Atlanta's four losses.
NEXT UP: The Falcons aim for a quick rebound in this Sunday's pivotal showdown
with NFC South leader Carolina at the Georgia Dome. Atlanta, which presently
trails the Panthers by two games in the division standings, will also be
seeking to avenge a 24-9 defeat to the Cats in Charlotte back in Week 4. The
Falcons mustered just 268 total yards in that game, with Turner held to 56
yards on 18 rush attempts.
CAROLINA: The Panthers used their recently-dominating running game to run
their winning streak to four consecutive games in Week 11, as the division
front-runners racked up a franchise-record 264 rushing yards that paved the
way for a harder-than-expected 31-22 ousting of the hapless Detroit Lions at
Bank of America Stadium.
Carolina's ground onslaught enabled the surging squad to overcome an early
10-0 deficit, as well as withstand a belated comeback attempt from the pesky
Lions. The team's stellar running back duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan
Stewart combined for 250 yards and three touchdowns, marking the first time in
Panthers history that two players have gained triple-digits in the same game.
Stewart amassed a career-best 130 yards and a score on only 15 carries, while
Williams added 120 yards and a pair of touchdowns on his 14 attempts. The
Panthers averaged a whopping 8.3 yards per rush against a woeful Detroit
defense, which also stands as a new club record.
Numbers like that have been nothing new for Williams as of late. The third-
year pro ran for 108 and 140 yards in Carolina's two wins prior to Sunday's
tilt, and he's averaged 7.4 yards per carry over that sensational stretch.
Williams' string of prolific performances and Stewart's monster day against
the Lions have helped the Panthers vault to sixth in the NFL in rushing
offense (133.7 ypg), as has the strong play from an offensive line that's
finally jelled after enduring a rash of early-season injuries.
It's always fun when the line can come up off the ball and block," left guard
Travelle Wharton said on Sunday. "Our backs had great vision and they were
just hitting the holes and they were running really hard. For us it's just
being patient. Let those guys do their thing. As long as we block the right
people up front and let those guys make a safety miss, they are hard to bring
down one-on-one."
Carolina, whose 8-2 season record matches the best-ever mark in team annals
after 10 games, had produced 242 rushing yards in a 15-0 victory over St.
Louis on November 19, 2006.
QUICK HITS: The Panthers also started off 8-2 en route to their lone Super
Bowl appearance in 2003...Carolina's previous record for yards per carry was
8.16, established at Washington on October 17, 1999...Defensive end Julius
Peppers backed up a three-sack effort in an November 9 win at Oakland with two
more takedowns in Sunday's triumph...Rookie free safety Charles Godfrey had a
hand in two of the Panther defense's four takeaways against the Lions,
recovering a fumble in the second quarter and garnering his first career
interception in the fourth...Reserve offensive lineman Jeremy Bridges was
inactive for the game as a precautionary measure due to an irregular
heartbeat.
NEXT UP: Carolina will be vying for a fourth straight win at the Georgia Dome
during this Sunday's clash with the Falcons. The Panthers' 24-9 victory over
Atlanta in September continued their recent dominance in the series, with
Carolina having notched wins in five of its last seven overall encounters with
the Falcons.
TAMPA BAY: The Buccaneers strengthened their case for inclusion in the NFC's
postseason parade come January, but the team's already-muddled running back
situation became even more murkier following this past Sunday's 19-13 win over
visiting Minnesota.
Leading rusher Earnest Graham twisted his right ankle on his first and only
carry of the contest, and head coach Jon Gruden termed the injury to be
potentially season-ending during his Monday press conference.
Graham, a self-made former undrafted free agent who spent most of his first
three professional seasons on special teams, has played a key role on a Tampa
team that improved to 7-3 with Sunday's decision, and was instrumental to the
Bucs' surprising run to the NFC South title a year ago. The 28-year-old rushed
for 898 yards and 10 touchdowns upon supplanting injured starter Carnell
"Cadillac" Williams last season, and has recorded team-bests of 563 yards on
the ground and four rushing scores so far in 2008.
"I'm just very disappointed for our guy Earnest," said a somber Gruden on
Monday. "He means a lot to us. He's done so much for us here in the last
couple years. He's a key reason why we are where we are."
Twelfth-year veteran Warrick Dunn will likely take over as Tampa Bay's primary
ball-carrier in the wake of Graham's injury, and Gruden remains hopeful that
the brittle Williams will be able to ease the burden on the 33-year-old back.
The Bucs activated the 2005 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year from the
Physically Unable to Perform list last week, but Williams was inactive for the
Minnesota game and has not played since suffering a career-threatening
patellar tendon tear in his right knee on September 30, 2007.
Fullback B.J. Askew, who's finally back from a torn hamstring that's limited
him to just four games so far this year, may also be part of the mix. The
valued lead blocker had a one-yard touchdown run in Sunday's test and may be
used more in short-yardage situations going forward.
Dunn managed just 53 yards on 20 attempts against Minnesota' sturdy run
defense on Sunday, but did contribute 65 yards on four catches to the winning
effort.
QUICK HITS: Quarterback Jeff Garcia hit on 23-of-30 passes for 255 yards and
no interceptions versus the Vikings, the fifth time in the gritty veteran's
last six games he's completed over 70 percent of his throws...Tight end
Jerramy Stevens posted season-bests of six catches and 84 receiving yards in
place of injured starter Alex Smith, who missed Sunday's matchup with an ankle
sprain...Rookie linebacker Geno Hayes injured his knee in the fourth quarter
during the win and may miss the remainder of the season...Nine-time Pro Bowl
safety John Lynch, who spent 11 of his 15 professional seasons with Tampa Bay,
officially retired as a Buc on Monday after signing a one-day contract.
NEXT UP: The Buccaneers head to the Motor City this Sunday for a battle with
the still-winless Detroit Lions. Tampa Bay has won six of its last eight
meetings with its former co-tenant in the now-defunct NFC Central, but the
Lions handed Gruden's charges a 23-16 setback at Ford Field during Week 7 of
last season.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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